Data Shows Pandemic in US will Stay for Months

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March 11, 2020

How Long Will It Last? When Will Coronavirus End?

This is a complex question because as social distancing and self-quarantine become the new normal, many things we take granted pre-COVID-19, for the most part, will change.

Forecasting when the Corona vrius outbreak will end is difficult. First because “end” as a definition is not clearly defined. Here, we will use the scientific definition – when the daily death rate drops below 0.3 per million – as the indicator of the end of this pandemic in individual state.

In New York, the study suggests the peak will start on April 9 and last until May 1 – May 15. This means, on average, social distancing and self-quarantine will last for a month from peak date.

Definitions

  • Peak: maximum hospital resource utilization and deaths associated with COVID-19.
  • Epidemic: refers to an increase in the number of cases of a disease (in this case COVID-19) above what is normally expected in that population in that area.
  • Pandemic: an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large group of people.
  • Self-quarantine: isolating one from other individuals for a period of time.